A country whose time has finally arrived
Anguished at the atrocities in Israel/Gaza, I turn to a happier and happening EM, my obsession du jour in deal heat. Mel Gibson, Sigourney Weaver and Billy Kwan’s tale of love and betrayal in the twilight of Sukarno’s Jakarta, the year of living dangerously. My interest is now beyond hanging out in the beach clubs of Uluwatu and Kota amid the mysticism and Aussie sheilas of Bali. For Manju and I, this is the year of getting to know a country whose time has finally come.
Indonesia, a $1.3 trillion economy (16X Dubai) with 280 million people living on 17,000 islands, a per capita income of $4500 (double, incredible India/Shaggyji’s Boombastic Bharat) with 170 million internet connection, 200 million mobile phones and viral e-commerce growth. Jokowi’s decade in power has reinvented Indonesia and culminates with the Jakarta-Bandung Woosh high speed rail link.
I concede I often fell in love with EMs that never loved me back. Mexico in the mid-1990’s, Turkey and Russia just before 2008, China circa 2012 when the world was young and Xi was a reformer and even Pakistan circa 2016 when it seemed that the Lion King was the Pied Piper of free markets and not just the bagman for the Panama Money Laundering Network (PMLN). When the GHQ dissed the Lion King for the crime of owning sterling assets in Mayfair despite my published pleas that Brexit made cable a no brainer mother of all shorts on Planet Forex. So I just lamented my failed EM love affairs with Toni Braxton’s sad hit/”Un-Break my heart and broke up with the Lion King in 2017 since in Toni’s words “he wasn’t man enough for me”. Since then, it was America alone from sea to shining sea.
It all started in Bandung with a conclave hosted by Sukarno and his drop-dead gorgeous wife Dewi for Nehru, Tito and Nasser. I came of age during Suharto’s praetorian kleptocracy and witnessed the military regime’s Gotterdammerung in 1998 amid the macro tempest of the Asian currency meltdown. 25 years have passed, I am older and wiser (hopefully) but Indonesia is now investing nirvana and the generals have long gone back to their barracks. A macro Krakatoa in 2008 delayed my return to Jakarta but EK now flies direct to Bali. Ironically, I was requested by the vice chairman of Barclays Capital (Asia) in Hong Kong to chair a panel with 10 ASEAN Finance Ministers at a conference in Dubai’s Raffles Hotel. I had the privilege of discussing Indonesian markets with HE Sri Mulyani Indrawati on the very night she was forced to close the stock exchange and declare a bank holiday to prevent a depositor run.
Fast forward to 2023 and the IPO market in Jakarta is white hot, with more capital raised than HK/Sing combined and second only to China. The PT Barita IPO was limit-up 25% with 135X oversubscription. Indonesia is the Saudi Arabia of green metals with 30% of the world’s proven reserves of nickel and its geological lottery that includes Dr. Copper, cobalt, thermal coal, LNG and gold. Mr. Lova Lova…
Also published on Medium.
