Climate and Conflict: Does War Contribute To CO2 Emissions?
The world is seemingly committed to net-zero, however the climate impact of escalating military conflicts goes unchecked. As foretold by the Holy Qur’an, the omission of absolute justice now puts the entire world at peril.
Sinwan Basharat, Canada
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10 years ago, more than 190 countries ratified the famous Paris Agreement at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21). However, beyond the grand speeches, the world is lacking in true transparency about countries’ climate goals. In particular, there is a glaring omission of carbon emissions due to the destructive and damaging effects of war. On one hand, powerful countries are setting ambitious targets towards net-zero, yet on the other, they are fueling a climate catastrophe through war and military operations.
The Data Behind Climate and Conflict
One of the few organizations examining the climate impacts of war is the Conflict and Environment Observatory (CEOBS). Bringing together a handful of researchers from leading academic institutes, CEOBS conducts analyses examining the impact of war and military operations on the environment. In 2022 the organization reported that global military operations produce a staggering 2,750 million tonnes (Mt) of CO2 towards global greenhouse gas emissions. This amount translates to approximately 5.5% of the global carbon footprint. The report said, “If the world’s militaries were a country, this figure would mean they have the fourth largest national carbon footprint in the world.” This figure also approximates to 85% of the global emissions of passenger cars.
Even more staggering is that since the data produced by countries around military operations is limited, their analysis substantially underestimates the total impact of war. In particular, the authors noted that the 2,750 MtCO2 figure does not account for the massive amounts of carbon emissions that arise from fires, damage to buildings, ecological effects, and critically, the emissions from reconstructing infrastructure following conflict. The true estimates could be 5 times higher.
More recently, images of the devastation in Gaza have flooded social media. Researchers from Queen Mary University of London estimated the full spectrum of carbon emissions due to the conflict in Gaza considering both the direct impact of military operations as well as emissions from post-war reconstruction and rebuilding. Based on the first 120 days of the conflict (October 2023 to February 2024), researchers estimated the war to produce between 47 and 61 MtCO2 of emissions. In just the first 120 days, conflict in a land area less than a quarter of the size of London, has produced more carbon emissions than the annual emissions of 36 countries of the world.
One of the authors of the study, Dr. Benjamin Neimark, remarked, “The study highlights the need for comprehensive reporting of military emissions to the UNFCCC [United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change] and an increased awareness of the climate impact of conflicts. As the world grapples with the dual crises of climate change and military conflicts, understanding and mitigating the environmental impact of warfare is crucial.”
When one considers the ongoing conflicts in the world combined with ever more destructive bombs and military technology, there seems to be no slowing or curtailing of carbon emissions due to war. Loss of life, loss of environment, loss of justice – the world stands at peril. The Holy Qur’an prophesied these circumstances more than fourteen centuries ago.
Prophesising Environmental Catastrophe
ظَہَرَ الۡفَسَادُ فِی الۡبَرِّ وَالۡبَحۡرِ بِمَا کَسَبَتۡ اَیۡدِی النَّاسِ
“Corruption has spread on land and sea because of what men’s hands have wrought”
(30:42)
In Surah Ar-Rum (Chapter 30) God Almighty paints a vivid and alarming depiction of events to unfold in the world. He states that due to people abandoning God, the world in its entirety, faces a dire situation. In addition to spiritual meanings of becoming devoid of virtue and truth, the Arabic word فساد (fasād) denotes a complete state of disorder, deterioration, and destruction. Furthermore, the explicit association with ‘barr’ (بر) i.e. ‘land’ and ‘baḥr’ (بحر) i.e. ‘sea’ points towards a destruction of the natural world and the environment due, largely in part, to humanity’s own doing. “Because of what men’s hands have wrought”.
The verse continues, “That He may make them taste the fruit of some of their doings, so that they may turn back from evil.” (30:42)
This part of the verse underscores a fundamental characteristic of the natural world, that everything operates on a system of cause and effect. The actions of individuals and nations in one part of the world also manifest in other parts of the world. Likewise, the excesses of nations, be they social, political, or environmental, have unavoidable consequences on the collective world. The perpetrators of injustice will experience their own handiwork. Although it may be possible for some parts of the world to remain immune for a short time, the impact of military conflicts and environmental degradation inevitably affects the entire world.
Need for Absolute Justice Globally
The Worldwide Head of the Ahmadiyya Muslim Community, Hazrat Mirza Masroor Ahmad (may Allah be his helper), reflected on the contradictory actions of leading powers related to climate and conflict in his 2018 Peace Symposium address,
“A major focus of the international community is climate change and a desire to keep the air that we breathe clean. Is there anyone who thinks that heavy bombardment has no effect on the atmosphere?
Furthermore, if peace ever does prevail in the war-torn countries, their towns and cities will have to be rebuilt from scratch, and this in itself will be a huge industry that will cause an increase in harmful emissions and pollution. Thus, on the one hand, we are trying to save the planet, yet with our other hand, we are senselessly destroying it.”
Today we see that there is no place on earth safe from the effects of climate change. East or West, rich or poor, each part of the world is contending with global warming. Scientists from Imperial College determined that more than 570,000 people lost their lives in the last two decades due to climate change. Indeed, many victims continue to be the most vulnerable from the poorest countries. However, wealthier nations, many of which are funding or pursuing vast military efforts, are also seeing the rise of wildfires, hurricanes, flooding, and other extreme weather events. The Los Angeles Times reported that the recent wildfires in Southern California displaced more than 150,000 people and caused more than $250 billion of damage. Tragedy is hitting everywhere – destruction has spread on land and sea.
If world leaders desire to truly make a beneficial impact on the world and to avert the dangers looming from conflicts and the climate, there is still an opportunity to intervene. As many leading activists have said, the solution does not rely on a ‘green military’ or using sustainable technologies to perpetrate war. Rather, it requires pursuing peace based on absolute justice.
His Holiness, Hazrat Mirza Masroor Ahmad (may Allah be his helper), summarized at the 2015 Peace Symposium, the same year as the signing of the Paris Agreement, the only viable path to preventing global catastrophe. He said, “We should realise and recognise the critical need of the hour. We must accept that peace can only be built upon the solid foundations of honesty, integrity and justice. These are the keys to peace. Until there is honesty and justice no solution will ever prove beneficial.”
About the author: Sinwan Basharat, MSc. is a researcher with a background in molecular genetics and epidemiology. He works for a research agency in Ottawa, Canada. He also serves as a Deputy Editor for the Science Section at The Review of Religions.
